The right man must lead Nato, or risk Trump’s wrath

Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte is consolidating the support of Nato member states to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as Nato’s next Secretary General. This is not good news for what remains one of the most important military alliances in history.

True, Rutte is rightly regarded as a smart, resourceful and personable leader. Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Nato’s worst ally and a man who has managed to mislead Donald Trump into the idea he is an American friend, despises Rutte. He’s personally tough: keeping on in the face of multi-year kidnap-assassination plots from the Moroccan mafia. All these points are in favour of Rutte’s candidacy.

The problem is that Nato’s next secretary general needs to be someone who can win over the next US president: a man who, if the polls are to be believed, is likely to be Donald Trump. Trump’s sceptical stance on Nato is well known. In turn, Rutte’s ability to win Trump’s professional respect as Nato secretary general is very much in question.

While Rutte may have maintained a good relationship with Trump during his initial term, if the 45th president is successful in securing a second term come November he will almost certainly adopt a more hostile foreign policy position. Trump is now far more sceptical of those – at home and abroad – who he believes feign friendship, seeking instead to manipulate him. 

This hostile attitude, bordering on paranoia, is sincerely felt. Trump forged an early friendship with Emmanuel Macron which later turned into open mutual disregard. But where France is racing to display leadership in regards to the war in Ukraine, Rutte cannot replicate his posturing or his spending commitment. 

In 2014, Rutte accepted the Nato summit communiqué in which all member states pledged to move towards at least 2 per cent of GDP defense spending. Yet Rutte has overseen a defense budget that rose from just 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2014 to 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2023. This is big problem: it will play to Trump’s sense he is told one thing and then delivered another in reality. It will also play to the MAGA-worldview that Europe is freeloading from America’s largesse.

This doesn’t mean Trump’s return to office spells the demise of Nato’s demise. Trump recently affirmed that he would “100 per cent” militarily support any Nato ally that meets the 2 per cent of GDP defense spending baseline. Still, Rutte’s record will provide ammunition to the more isolationist minded members of any second Trump administration to whisper in the president’s ear that Nato is broken. 

Imagine the plays to Trump’s ego: “Mr. President, they picked a new Nato leader who failed to get anywhere close to 2 per cent spending when he led the Netherlands. They are playing you for a fool.” When other Nato allies like Spain can continue to skimp on defense spending without consequence, Trump may feel inclined to view the Netherlands in the same light – forgetting the Dutch commitment to America in Afghanistan.

Rutte’s main challenger, the Romanian president Klaus Iohannis, might be better placed to deal with Trump. Between the 2014-2023 period, Romania’s defense budget rose from 1.4 per cent of GDP to more than 2.4 per cent of GDP. With a polite, deferential nature that is certain to endear him, Iohannis has also repeatedly argued for an increased Nato focus on China. A hawkish position towards China will be one of the defining foreign policy planks of a second Trump administration.

The China question is another area where Rutte doesn’t quite measure up. Meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing just over a week ago, Rutte released a remarkable statement, expressing that “China plays a crucial role in the world when it comes to economic stability, international security and the transition to a green economy.” This was not music to the ears of American intelligence and military officers, the majority of whom believe a US-China war is more likely than not by 2030. Analyst Kyle Orton put it well: “Mark Rutte is quite likely to be the next Nato Secretary-General, and here he is promoting China as a source of stability and kindness in the world.”

Yes, Rutte has taken some efforts under US pressure to restrict the Dutch ASML firm’s sale of highly advanced semiconductor chips to China. But many China hawks on Capitol Hill and those in the US defense establishment believe he has moved too slowly and carefully. Trump will be made aware of this.

Nato’s health continues to matter a great deal, both to Americans and to the 31 other allies. In ambition and aggression, Russia’s threat is growing. That doesn’t mean we need to panic: the worst fears that Trump will single-handedly destroy Nato are misguided.

Nevertheless, Rutte’s record suggests he would not find Trump’s favour. Whether right or wrong, the attitude of the American president is of immense importance to the health of this immensely important alliance.